Recent press about Subprime auto loan performance has highlighted
concerns about this market segment. “The Federal Reserve recently expressed
concern that delinquencies among auto borrowers with weak credit has been
rising.”
A recent article in USA Today entitled, “It’s Tougher to Get a Credit
Card, Car Loan” noted that the number of subprime auto loans (those requiring a
FICO score of 600 or lower) that were at least 90 days late on payments hit the
highest level since 2010 in the third quarter of 2016 at 6 million, according
to the New York Fed. The bulk of bad loans were by auto finance companies
rather than banks,” they said.
In February, Wall Street analyst Wolf Richter published an in-depth
report and analysis called, “Seriously Delinquent” Auto Loan Surge which
provides some excellent insights into the causes and predicts what may be
ahead. Here are some excerpts from his article:
“Auto loan balances in 2016 surged at the fastest pace in the 18-year
history of the data series, the report said, driven by the highest originations
of loans ever. Alas what the auto industry has been dreading is now happening!
Delinquencies have begun to surge.
At $1.112 trillion (or $1.6 trillion according to the New York Fed) they’re
now 35% higher than during the crazy peak of the prior bubble. No way is this
an auto loan bubble. Not this time. It’s sustainable. Or at least containable
when it’s not sustainable. These ballooning loans have made the auto boom
possible.
“Seriously delinquent” auto loan balances, composed of all loans 90+ past
due rose in Q4 of 2016 to 3.8% of total auto loan balances. That puts them
right between Q1 and Q3 of 2013, as auto credit was recovering from the
Financial Crisis.
Those seriously delinquent auto loans are an indication of what is next,
Richter said:
Losses at auto lenders, particularly those specializing in lending to
subprime borrowers, but also other lenders, including captives such as Ford
Motor Credit, which has already warned in its most recent outlook that “we
continue to see credit losses begin to exact their pound of flesh from the
lenders.”
“Some specialized lenders might keel over. Larger lenders with good
quality loan portfolios will bleed but go on while tightening their underwriting
standards in order to weather the storm, and that’s precisely what the auto
industry is dreading - tightening credit.
The auto boom over the past few years was funded by historically low
interest rates and loosey-goosey underwriting, with loan terms and
loan-to-value ratios, often over 120%. They made everything possible but they
infused $1.1 trillion in auto loans with some very bad risks.
So it’s all there – the ingredients for bigger losses among banks and
investors, a few failures of smaller specialized lenders and belated credit
tightening, both out of necessity and due to lower competition among lenders as
some of the most aggressive ones will be licking their wounds.”
As President of NABD (www.bhphinfo.com) and Subprime
Analytics (www.subanalytics.com) I have been tracking and analyzing
subprime and deep subprime market
performance for the last 20 years and annually publish industry benchmarks. As
such, I agree with the aforementioned analysis and the reasons that subprime
delinquencies are now increasing. I also agree that we are not headed for
another subprime mortgage crisis with subprime auto paper. A new credit loss
measurement standard requiring lenders and borrowers to increase bad debt loss
reserves, for all receivables in the future will convert the aforementioned
delinquencies into bad debts.
However, if you are an independent used car operator who refused to match
the “underwriting aggressiveness” in the markets during the last few years this
bad news creates some exceptional new opportunities to regain market share and
increase future profits. The pain suffered by the increased level of defaults
in subprime auto finance can result in gains for those who capitalize on them.
In order to capitalize on this opportunity operators must avoid making
the same mistakes which caused the past performance problems. Specifically,
longer loan terms, lower down payments, loose underwriting, higher amounts
financed, and too much vehicle for too little customer, are all recipes for
failure, not success! Therefore, operators must embrace changing their approach
and implement more prudent underwriting strategies in the future to prosper!
At the 19th Annual BHPH Conference on May 23-25 at Wynn | Encore in Las
Vegas, many of the nation’s most successful operators and experts will provide
attendees with information needed to make the right decisions, update them on
market and regulatory developments, introduce new technology which provide
cost-effective solutions, and new benchmarks to measure performance. Both new
and experienced operators are encouraged to participate and discover new ways
to prosper in the changing subprime auto finance market of today. The old ways
are not working, so let’s implement some new ones!
Good luck!
Kenneth Shilson, CPA, (Ken@kenshilson.com) is President of Subprime Analytics (www.subanalytics.com) and NABD (www.bhphinfo.com). Subprime Analytics uses data mining to perform computerized
portfolio analysis for operators and providers. NABD is the nation’s largest
BHPH used car special interest group for operators and product providers with
more than 13,000 members. NABD will host a National BHPH Conference on May
23-25, 2017 at Encore in Las Vegas. For more information call 832-767-4759 or
visit www.bhphinfo.com.